18 Dec 2024
What I’ll be watching for in 2025
Lowy researchers gaze at their crystal balls – with questions, more than answers, for the year ahead.
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13 Dec 2024
Ignoring the real biowarfare threat
The sudden renovation at an old Soviet biological weapons site needs to be better explained. -
3 Dec 2024
Is Russia the loser in the fall of Syria’s Aleppo?
Moscow cannot meaningfully aid its ally, and that’s not gone unnoticed. -
22 Nov 2024
Russia escalates, strikes Ukraine with a new missile, warns West
Putin wants to target Europe’s commitment to support Ukraine. -
21 Nov 2024
Cat-astrophe! What happens when dirty-minded North Koreans meet Iranian nuclear purrfidy
I spy an invisible cat. Two, in fact. -
21 Nov 2024
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18 Nov 2024
An early winter in Kyiv?
Unpicking the implications of Trump’s election win on the war in Ukraine. -
15 Nov 2024
What does Trump’s return mean for America’s relations with Russia?
Whatever happens over the next four years, the underlying causes of Russia–US confrontation won’t go away. -
12 Nov 2024
The West’s unfounded Chussia Anxiety
Russia will not long tolerate its increasingly vasal-like status to China. -
6 Nov 2024
Moldova and Georgia serve as geopolitical bellwethers
With the two countries on diverging paths after recent elections, the choice appears to be between Russia and the West. -
5 Nov 2024
What’s new in Russia’s latest nuclear statement?
Vladimir Putin has rattled his sabre once again in the face of US and NATO deliberations on Ukraine’s use of weapons. -
25 Oct 2024
As Russia struggles in Ukraine, North Korea benefits
Having found common cause under sanctions, Pyongyang and Moscow are forging new economic geography and with it pan-continental security dynamics. -
21 Oct 2024
Central Asia: An emerging battlefield for strategic minerals
The region’s rare earth elements are in demand, but ties with Russia and China mean diversifying is easier said than done. -
17 Oct 2024
North Korean troops in Russia: The first test of the Russia-North Korea alliance
Should the deployment be confirmed, history offers three ways to gauge the cohesion of Pyongyang’s ties to Moscow. -
17 Oct 2024
A shared struggle: Ukrainians and their volunteer supporters on the front lines
An unyielding will in the face of invasion has inspired heroes at home and from afar. -
7 Oct 2024
Kamala Harris and Ukraine: Is the US truly committed to Ukrainian victory?
The only nation with a viable theory of victory is Russia. Harris must decide if the US will change that equation. -
3 Oct 2024
Trump may surprise us on the Ukraine war
If Donald Trump can’t achieve a quick solution in Ukraine, he could well turn on Putin and increase US support to Ukraine. -
24 Sep 2024
North Korea and its middle power friends
The latest Asia Power Index has Pyongyang pegged as Moscow’s best buddy…for now. -
6 Sep 2024
Russian sanctions: Why has Australia stayed quiet on reparations?
With strong rule of law credentials and expertise, Canberra should use its advantage in responses to war. -
4 Sep 2024
Will Russia violate the Antarctic Treaty?
For Moscow, science has always come second to ideology. -
3 Sep 2024
Russia and the Middle East: Positioning for advantage
Moscow has made a cynical calculation that conflict serves its interests. -
3 Sep 2024
Hong Kong keeps Russia’s dark fleet afloat
Operating under flags of convenience, hundreds of vessels are evading the sanctions meant to stifle movement. -
30 Aug 2024
Is Russia really European anymore?
Cut off from the West, Russia is making a turn to Asia. But this leaves a cultural wound. -
21 Aug 2024
Surprise and modern war
The Kursk offensive is a reminder of the enduring power of surprise. Prudence suggests that Australia needs be prepared. -
20 Aug 2024
Central Asia's energy drive spurs regional integration
No longer in the “middle of nowhere”, Central Asian countries are collaborating and diversifying, often away from Russia. -
16 Aug 2024
Explaining Ukraine’s hopes with a bold attack in Kursk – and how it might backfire, badly
In a calculated gamble, the purpose appears as much political as military: a positive shift to the narrative, directed at multiple audiences. -
22 Jul 2024
The deadly consequences of misclassifying foreign fighters in Ukraine
Russia calls them mercenaries to deny international legal protections. Accountability is essential. -
19 Jul 2024
Does democracy still matter in the ‘New Cold War’ between the US and China?
Contradictions between the two models of governance make coexistence among superpowers difficult. -
12 Jul 2024
The global evolution of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
With countries from outside the region looking to join, is the SCO about to beef up its geopolitical clout? -
10 Jul 2024
Modi’s Moscow miscalculation
Despite the bluster about foreign policy independence, the Indian PM could have kept Putin at a distance. -
5 Jul 2024
Putin’s diplomacy roadshow in North Korea and Vietnam
Despite Moscow’s charm offensive, regional states are keeping their options open, and China remains the partner of choice. -
2 Jul 2024
Putin goes to Pyongyang: Should we be worried?
The renewed marriage of convenience between Russia and North Korea has global implications. -
2 Jul 2024
Pariah states and the Olympic Games
With the Paris Games only weeks away, the controversy around athletes from “rogue” countries is set to intensify. -
1 Jul 2024
With friends like these … Russia and North Korea partner up
Putin and Kim wanted to send a message of strength. But the world might have heard differently. -
28 Jun 2024
Putin in Asia: Setting a cat among the pigeons
Ever a pragmatist, the Russian leader’s calculated alignments are purely based on needs and interests. -
6 Jun 2024
Zelenskyy put a spotlight on China’s Ukraine war problem: Defend Ukraine’s sovereignty, or Russian security?
Even a powerful state must make trade-offs in its foreign policy. -
23 May 2024
Putin’s foot soldier in New York: How Vassily Nebenzia fought on after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Seen as a potential heir apparent to Sergey Lavrov, Vassily Nebenzia is a mysterious but relentless envoy for the Kremlin. -
17 May 2024
Time to recognise the Crimean Tatar genocide
Acknowledging the crimes in the 1940s would underline the attachment to Ukraine and rebuff changing borders by force. -
10 May 2024
Ukraine gets the green light for strikes in Russia – it was long overdue
But nor does this mean the end of Western hesitancy in its support for Ukraine. -
10 May 2024
All wars end. But how will the one in Ukraine?
An obsession with deterrence of Russian aggression treats Ukraine as a by-product rather than the main game. -
23 Apr 2024
The Kyrgyzstan route facilitating Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Russia’s military aims in Ukraine have been furthered by its trade with the Central Asian nation. -
15 Apr 2024
Russia conundrum in the Caucasus and beyond
Once a de facto leader in the post-Soviet space, Moscow is now falling outside the friend zone in its own backyard. -
3 Apr 2024
Why Russia has only now declared war on Ukraine
A game of semantic camouflage allows the Kremlin to reposition itself onto a war footing. -
26 Mar 2024
Moscow attacks: Why Putin was quick to blame Ukraine
The Kremlin is covering its own mistakes in the bid to deflect attention. -
25 Mar 2024
Islamic State terror attack in Moscow a grim acknowledgement of global power status Russia seeks
One of Moscow’s goals in the Middle East was in many ways similar to that of the United States – to prevent the spillover of extremism. -
6 Mar 2024
A summit between Japan and North Korea? About time
With Kim Jong-un extending an olive branch to Tokyo, high-level talks may be on the cards, but roadblocks remain. -
4 Mar 2024
Why is Putin again threatening a nuclear war?
And just as importantly, is the West willing to call his bluff? -
28 Feb 2024
Can South Korea become a global pivotal state?
With non-permanent member status on the UN Security Council, Seoul has a long list of goals to help make its mark. -
21 Feb 2024
Open for business: North Korea welcomes back visitors
Kim Jong-un has been on a charm offensive to rekindle trade and tourism links with friendly neighbours. -
19 Feb 2024
Putin unrivalled
Few expected Navalny to survive but his death shows how closed and suspicious Putin’s circle has become at home.